Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 012 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate due to four M-class events during the past 24 hours. Region 9775 (S05E30) produced three of these: an M1/Sf at 0322 UTC, an M1/1n at 1519 UTC, and an M1/Sf at 1929 UTC. The region has not changed size significantly, but appears to be active due to the emergence of new magnetic flux. The group currently has a relatively complex magnetic configuration (beta-gamma). The fourth M-class event was an M3 at 1843 UTC: this event was associated with erupting prominence activity on the west limb near S17. Region 9773 (N15W46) continues to be the largest sunspot group on the disk. This group did not show much change and managed to produce a few subflares during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9773, 9775, and 9778 are the most likely sources for M-class flares. There continues to be a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing flare from Region 9773.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24 hours. The enhanced level of activity was due to continued effects from a coronal hole associated high speed solar wind stream. The solar wind velocity showed an overall decreasing trend today, suggesting that the coronal hole effects should not last much longer. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 10/2045 UTC continues in progress: flux levels decayed throughout the day and had reached 16.1 PFU at forecast issue time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to decrease to mostly unsettled levels for the next two days as the current enhanced solar wind should subside soon. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected by day three. LASCO observations do not show any CMEs to be associated with today's solar flare activity.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 20%20%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 233
  Predicted    13 Jan-15 Jan  235/240/240
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 224
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  012/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  012/012-012/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%

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