Viewing archive of Friday, 11 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9767 (S18W87) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/0807 UTC. This region has shown signs of slight decay as it approached the west limb. Region 9773 (N15W32) produced four minor C-class flare and remains a magnetically complex beta-gamma-delta region. There has been growth in the area coverage of this region but reduced spot count. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 9781 (S06E64) and Region 9782 (N08E73). Region 9782 is believed to be the return of old Region 9742 which was quite active while on the disc.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with Regions 9773 (N14W32) and 9778 (S16E33) the most promising flare sites.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, due to a high speed solar wind stream. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 10/2045 utc, reached a tentative maximum of 91 pfu at 11/0530 UTC. The flux is slowly declining.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at unsettled to active levels for the next 48 hours. Strictly unsettled conditions should end the period. The satellite proton event is expected to continue for at least another 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 25%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 229
  Predicted    12 Jan-14 Jan  230/235/240
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 223
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  016/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  020/022
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 30%30%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 40%40%30%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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