Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9773 (N14W05) produced
an impulsive M9/2b flare at 1801 UTC, with an associated radio burst
of 230 sfu at 2695 MHz. Earlier it had an M1/1f at 1113 UTC. The
region grew significantly in white light and h-alpha during the day,
and evolved magnetically to a beta gamma-delta type. It seems to
still retain its potency, and is prominent from its location near
center disk. Region 9767 (S18W61) generated a few c-class events as
it simplified. Newly numbered Region 9780 (S11W49) emerged on the
disk. Today's 10.7 cm solar flux measurement may be flare enhanced.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9767 and 9773 each have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days.
High-speed solar wind is expected to buffet the magnetosphere
throughout the period, bringing occasional episodes of minor
storming to local nighttime sectors.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 229 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 230/235/240 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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