Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 009 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9773 (N14W05) produced an impulsive M9/2b flare at 1801 UTC, with an associated radio burst of 230 sfu at 2695 MHz. Earlier it had an M1/1f at 1113 UTC. The region grew significantly in white light and h-alpha during the day, and evolved magnetically to a beta gamma-delta type. It seems to still retain its potency, and is prominent from its location near center disk. Region 9767 (S18W61) generated a few c-class events as it simplified. Newly numbered Region 9780 (S11W49) emerged on the disk. Today's 10.7 cm solar flux measurement may be flare enhanced.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9767 and 9773 each have the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days. High-speed solar wind is expected to buffet the magnetosphere throughout the period, bringing occasional episodes of minor storming to local nighttime sectors.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jan 229
  Predicted   10 Jan-12 Jan  230/235/240
  90 Day Mean        09 Jan 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan  015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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