Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9767 (S21W42) produced a C7/1f flare at 08/1725Z. Little changes were noted in this moderately complex beta-gamma region. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region 9773 (N14E06). The most impressive event of the period was the long duration C9 X-ray event at 08/2025Z. The event began at around 08/1800Z as a very large prominence eruption and CME was observed on the SE limb. A second CME soon followed as a large filament erupted near the NW limb. The X-ray event was still in progress at issue time. New Regions 9777 (S06E64), 9778 (S15E67), and 9779 (N29E65) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Brief substorms caused one active period at Boulder from 0600-0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled early, then increasingly more active through January 11. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream are anticipated the latter half of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Jan 199
  Predicted   09 Jan-11 Jan  190/195/205
  90 Day Mean        08 Jan 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Jan  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan  010/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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