Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 008 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9767 (S21W42) produced a
C7/1f flare at 08/1725Z. Little changes were noted in this
moderately complex beta-gamma region. Minor C-class flares were also
observed in Region 9773 (N14E06). The most impressive event of the
period was the long duration C9 X-ray event at 08/2025Z. The event
began at around 08/1800Z as a very large prominence eruption and
CME was observed on the SE limb. A second CME soon followed as a
large filament erupted near the NW limb. The X-ray event was still
in progress at issue time. New Regions 9777 (S06E64), 9778 (S15E67),
and 9779 (N29E65) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. Brief substorms
caused one active period at Boulder from 0600-0900 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled early, then increasingly more active
through January 11. The effects of a high speed solar wind stream
are anticipated the latter half of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jan 199 Predicted 09 Jan-11 Jan 190/195/205 90 Day Mean 08 Jan 222
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jan 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jan 010/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jan-11 Jan 010/008-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jan to 11 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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