Viewing archive of Monday, 7 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 007 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar Activity was at low levels. Region 9767 (S22W30) produced a C3.8/Sf flare at 07/1422 UTC. Region 9767 has slightly simplified in structure but retains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 9773 (N12E22) shows signs of entering the decay phase. The large leader spot from yesterday has broken up into a number of smaller spots. Three new regions were numbered today: Region 9774 (N12W37), Region 9775 (S06E37), and Region 9776 (N10E59).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9767 and Region 9773 have the potential for an M-class event. Two large positive polarity coronal holes are presently centered along Carrington longitude 355. One hole is at central latitudes and one at southern latitudes. These coronal holes will begin rotating into geoeffective position by day three of the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active conditions possible. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day one and two of the forecast period. By day three of the period coronal hole effects could produce an isolated active condition especially at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jan 189
  Predicted   08 Jan-10 Jan  195/200/200
  90 Day Mean        07 Jan 221
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan  005/008-005/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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