Viewing archive of Friday, 4 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 004 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Activity was at moderate levels. New Region 9773
(N14E64) was numbered today. This region produced an M1/Sf flare at
04/1749 UTC. Region 9773 also produced a C3 flare at 04/0952 UTC
with an associated eruptive prominence and Type II radio sweep (537
km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery does not indicate an Earth directed
component. Region 9767 (S22E08) produced a minor C6/Sf flare at
04/2304 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9767 has the potential for M class events. New
Region 9773 is rotating onto the northeast limb and is showing
signs of increased activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The Geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The >10 MeV proton event
that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress, peak flux was 108
pfu at 31/1620 UTC. Stratwarm conditions remains in effect.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected on the
first day of the period. A shock arrival from a C5/1f on 03/0220
UTC event is expected to arrive midday on day two of the period.
By day three activity is expected to return to unsettled levels.
The >10 MeV proton event is expected to end late today or early on
day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 218 Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 04 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 006/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 005/008-008/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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