Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest flare of the period was optically uncorrelated, an M1 occurred at 02/2148 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E23) produced a C5/1f at 03/0220 UTC that had an associated radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 410 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict the presence of an associated halo with this event. Although this region has been spotless for several days, Region 9758 (N13W84),produced several Sf optical flares today. Other activity included a couple small C-class flares from regions 9770 (N09W41) and 9754 (S05W81). New Region 9772 (S18E83) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress, maximum flux was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast period. Day three could see some isolated active conditions due to the ejecta indicated by the Type II radio sweep mentioned in 1A. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
Class M70%60%60%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton99%10%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Jan 220
  Predicted   04 Jan-06 Jan  220/215/210
  90 Day Mean        03 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan  006/008-004/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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