Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 January 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 003 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. The largest
flare of the period was optically uncorrelated, an M1 occurred at
02/2148 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E23) produced a C5/1f at 03/0220 UTC
that had an associated radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity
of 410 km/s. LASCO imagery doesn't depict the presence of an
associated halo with this event. Although this region has been
spotless for several days, Region 9758 (N13W84),produced several Sf
optical flares today. Other activity included a couple small
C-class flares from regions 9770 (N09W41) and 9754 (S05W81). New
Region 9772 (S18E83) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in progress,
maximum flux was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two of the forecast
period. Day three could see some isolated active conditions due to
the ejecta indicated by the Type II radio sweep mentioned in 1A.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day one.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 70% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 99% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 220 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 220/215/210 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 220
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 006/008-004/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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