Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 January 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Jan 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Most significant activity during the period was an optically uncorrelated C4 x-ray flare which occurred at 01/0910 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E49) remains the most ominous and magnetically complex region on disk. Even so, it has been relatively quiescent throughout the period with no appreciable change to umbral structure. Region 9764 (N14W37) has shown a dramatic increase in spot coverage during the period although it also has been restrained. New Region 9768 (S06W15) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC remains in progress. Event maximum was 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton particle flux event is expected to end late on day one of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton99%50%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jan 232
  Predicted   02 Jan-04 Jan  230/230/230
  90 Day Mean        01 Jan 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec  012/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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