Viewing archive of Monday, 31 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9754 (S08W42)
produced the largest flare of the period, an impulsive C6/1f flare
at 31/1845 UTC. Region 9767 (S23E60) was the only other source of
optically correlated flare activity during the period, producing
small C-class flares. This region appears to have fully rotated
onto the visible disk doubling reported arial spot coverage from
yesterday's analysis. Other regions on the disk were mostly placid
throughout the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 9767, 9754, and 9751 (S08W42) all have the
potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event that began on 30/0245 UTC remains in
progress and reached a maximum of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. A slight chance of
active conditions exist on day one with the potential for a weak
shock passage from the west limb CME of 29 December. The greater
than 10 MeV event is expected to end late on day one of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 246 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 245/240/240 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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