Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been high, due to the occurrence of
five M-class flares. Region 9748 (S11W64) produced two M-class
events, the largest being an M2/2n at 27/1648 UTC. Lesser M-class
activity included one uncorrelated event, and flares from Region
9742 (N12W81), and from the spotless plage of Region 9752 (S13W85)
near the west limb. Two new regions were numbered: 9762 (N03E07)
and 9763 (N06E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10 MeV
proton event, which began on 26 December, remains in progress with
current flux levels at about 25 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase within the next 24 hours, due to a possible
flanking shock passage from the CME activity of 26 December. Minor
storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods at higher
latitudes are possible during the first day of the forecast period.
Storm activity is expected to be of relatively brief duration, with
predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions expected for days two
and three of the forecast period. The solar proton event in
progress is expected to wane over the next 24-36 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 275 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 265/260/255 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 009/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 030/030-018/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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