Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred
from a number of active regions. Region 9742 (N10W29) remains the
largest sunspot group currently on the disk. Although it continues
to grow in sunspot number and area it has yet to produce significant
flare activity. New Region 9754 (S09E61) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9742 appears to be the most likely source of
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 255 Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 260/265/270 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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