Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 December 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 356 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9749 (S08E43) produced a C3/Sf flare at 21/2152 UTC. Three additional optically uncorrelated C-class flares were observed during the period. Region 9742 (N10W16) continues to be the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk. This region was stable and appears to have slightly decreased in areal coverage during the period. A 15-degree filament near S19E26 disappeared sometime between 22/0108 UTC and 22/0225 UTC. A second, smaller, filament disappeared near N15E49 between 22/1636 UTC and 22/1653 UTC. New Regions 9752 (S14W19) and 9753 (S20E67) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9742 remains capable of producing M-class flares and there is a chance for an isolated major flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. High latitudes may experience isolated active conditions on days two and three of the period as a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Dec 243
  Predicted   23 Dec-25 Dec  245/250/250
  90 Day Mean        22 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Dec  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Dec  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Dec-25 Dec  008/010-010/012-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Dec to 25 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%30%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%40%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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