Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9739 (S14W82)
produced occasional C-class events and the single M-class flare of
the period, an M1/Sf at 19/1706Z. This region has been growing
steadily since appearing on the disk on 13 Dec and now exceeds 400
millionths of white light area as it rotates around the west limb.
Region 9733 (N13W75) continues to produce minor C-class events as
it approaches the west limb. Region 9742 (N12E27) maintains moderate
magnetic complexity and size, and produced a C4 flare at 19/0232Z).
New Regions 9746 (S18E08) and 9747 (N12E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9733 and 9739 have potential to produce an
M-class flare on the west limb. Region 9742 also has a slim chance
of producing an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was mostly
southward this period creating prolonged disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled
conditions are likely on days two and three as a southern coronal
hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Dec 208 Predicted 20 Dec-22 Dec 205/195/185 90 Day Mean 19 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Dec 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec 008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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