Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9739 (S14W82) produced occasional C-class events and the single M-class flare of the period, an M1/Sf at 19/1706Z. This region has been growing steadily since appearing on the disk on 13 Dec and now exceeds 400 millionths of white light area as it rotates around the west limb. Region 9733 (N13W75) continues to produce minor C-class events as it approaches the west limb. Region 9742 (N12E27) maintains moderate magnetic complexity and size, and produced a C4 flare at 19/0232Z). New Regions 9746 (S18E08) and 9747 (N12E71) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9733 and 9739 have potential to produce an M-class flare on the west limb. Region 9742 also has a slim chance of producing an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The IMF Bz was mostly southward this period creating prolonged disturbed periods.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. Unsettled conditions are likely on days two and three as a southern coronal hole moves into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M 60%50%50%
Class X 10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 208
  Predicted    20 Dec-22 Dec  205/195/185
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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