Viewing archive of Monday, 17 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only isolated, minor C-class
events occurred during the period. Region 9733 (N14E48) continued to
show signs of gradual decay as it nears the west limb. This region
lost its delta configuration and now retains a beta-gamma
classification. Region 9742 (N08E51) is showing signs of increased
magnetic complexity and should develop into a beta-gamma
classification in the next one or two days.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is still a slight chance of a major event
occurring from Region 9733.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active conditions
occurring at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is still a slight
chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Dec 203 Predicted 18 Dec-20 Dec 200/195/190 90 Day Mean 17 Dec 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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