Viewing archive of Monday, 17 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only isolated, minor C-class events occurred during the period. Region 9733 (N14E48) continued to show signs of gradual decay as it nears the west limb. This region lost its delta configuration and now retains a beta-gamma classification. Region 9742 (N08E51) is showing signs of increased magnetic complexity and should develop into a beta-gamma classification in the next one or two days.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is still a slight chance of a major event occurring from Region 9733.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with active conditions occurring at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There is still a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Dec 203
  Predicted    18 Dec-20 Dec  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        17 Dec 214
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Dec  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec to 20 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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