Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. There were two large, magnetically complex sunspot groups on the visible disk: Region 9727 (S22W88) and Region 9733 (N14W23). Region 9727 produced isolated subflares while crossing the west limb. It retained at least a moderate degree of magnetic complexity as it rotated out of view with mixed polarities in its trailer spots. Region 9733 remained the most active region on the disk as it produced occasional subflares, some of which reached C-class. This region has showed a gradual decrease in area since 13 December. However, opposite-polarity magnetic flux has gradually emerged within its northernmost spots during the last two days where a possible delta magnetic configuration may reside. The remaining active regions showed minor changes during the period. New Region 9742 (N09E73) rotated into view during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are expected. There will also be a chance for a major flare from Region 9733. Region 9727 could also produce a major flare during the first day of the period as it completes its west limb passage.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Unsettled to minor storm conditions may occur on 16 - 17 December due to a possible CME passage (associated with the X6/3b flare of 13 December). Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels during the latter half of the forecast period. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9733.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
Class M 80%75%75%
Class X 20%15%15%
Proton20%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Dec 218
  Predicted    16 Dec-18 Dec  205/195/190
  90 Day Mean        15 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Dec  013/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec  015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm 15%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm 20%15%05%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%

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