Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 9733
(N15E32) produced an impulsive X2/Sf flare at 11/0808 UTC. The flare
was associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps, a 2600 sfu
Tenflare, and a coronal mass ejection (CME) that did not appear to
be Earth-directed. Region 9733 showed increased area and magnetic
complexity with at least one magnetic delta configuration within its
northern-most trailer spots. Region 9727 (S22W36) produced an
impulsive M1/2n flare at 11/1451 UTC associated with relatively
minor radio emission. This region showed minor growth in spot number
and area with two delta magnetic configurations evident within its
large trailing spot mass.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are expected from
Regions 9727 and 9733. Either region could produce a major flare
during the period as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Regions 9727 and
9733.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Dec 221 Predicted 12 Dec-14 Dec 215/210/210 90 Day Mean 11 Dec 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 007/008-012/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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