Viewing archive of Saturday, 8 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity was moderate during the past 24 hours.
Newly assigned Region 9733 (N14E67) produced an M3 flare at 0634
UTC. The event was associated with a CME: coronagraph observations
clearly show this CME is not Earth directed. The region produced
additional C-class level events. Region 9718 (S06W63) continues to
be the largest group on the disk but was relatively quiet and is
showing slight decay. Region 9727 (S22E03) continues to be
magnetically complex with a beta-gamma-delta, but was also stable
and appears to be gradually decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9733 and 9727 are expected to dominate the
activity, although Region 9718 could possibly contribute an
energetic event as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Dec 221 Predicted 09 Dec-11 Dec 215/210/205 90 Day Mean 08 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec 010/008-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
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