Viewing archive of Friday, 7 December 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
9727 (S22E16) produced today's largest flare: a C8/2f at 0817 UTC.
This region is the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the
disk and is showing slow growth. Region 9718 (S06W51) is the largest
group on the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic
configuration and did not produce any flare activity. New Region
9732 (N03E64) rotated into view today and showed occasional
brightenings. A partial halo CME was observed in coronagraph images
today: the event crossed the C2 field of view in about 80-90
minutes, beginning at 1430 UTC. Most of the mass appeared to be over
the northwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9727 and 9718 are considered to be the most
likely sources for M-class level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, and
predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 226 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 225/220/210 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 010/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 007/008-010/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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