Viewing archive of Friday, 7 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 9727 (S22E16) produced today's largest flare: a C8/2f at 0817 UTC. This region is the most magnetically complex sunspot group on the disk and is showing slow growth. Region 9718 (S06W51) is the largest group on the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration and did not produce any flare activity. New Region 9732 (N03E64) rotated into view today and showed occasional brightenings. A partial halo CME was observed in coronagraph images today: the event crossed the C2 field of view in about 80-90 minutes, beginning at 1430 UTC. Most of the mass appeared to be over the northwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9727 and 9718 are considered to be the most likely sources for M-class level activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, and predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 226
  Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  225/220/210
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  010/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  007/008-010/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%35%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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