Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 December 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 9714 (S09W95) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 02/1500 UTC as it crossed the west limb. A post-flare loop prominence system followed this flare. Region 9715 (N04W37) produced isolated C-class subflares. It remained the most impressive region on the disk, but showed signs of gradual decay with a modest decrease in area. However, it remained magnetically complex as a magnetic delta configuration persisted within its interior spots. Region 9718 (S06E16) showed minor growth and produced isolated subflares, one of which reached C-class. Some polarity mixing persisted in the trailer portion of this region. New Region 9725 (S11W45) emerged during the period. New Region 9726 (S15E69) rotated into view today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the period with isolated M-class flares likely. There will also be a chance for an isolated major flare during the period from Region 9715.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected. However, there will be a chance for active periods during 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9715.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 245
  Predicted    03 Dec-05 Dec  245/245/245
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 219
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  005/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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