Viewing archive of Friday, 30 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9718
(S07E42) produced an M3/1n at 30/0106 UTC. Sympathetic flares were
observed on NOAA/SXI test imagery between Region 9718 and Region
9720 (S18E46). Region 9715 (N05W11) remains magnetically complex
with some small growth and produced three C-class flares. A
disappearing filament occurred just northeast of Region 9715, near
N18E17 at 30/0305 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9715, Region 9718 and Region 9720 have the
potential for producing M-class flares. Region 9715 has the
potential for an X-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. A minor transient passed
the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 30/1728 UTC resulting in a 5 nT
deflection in the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1809 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The CME shock from
the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to reach Earth mid day on the
first day, producing active conditions late on day one and into day
two of the period. Minor storm conditions are possible at the
higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Nov 226 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 012/015-020/030-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec to 03 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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