Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05
E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares. The
largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC. This region remains
magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has
grown in area coverage, spot number and extent. Region 9715
produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf
at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC. Region 9717 (N04E53) and
Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a
single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively..
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major
M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare. Region 9718 has also
shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected for the
first day of the period. Late on day two or early on day three the
CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at
Earth. With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
at higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Nov 216 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 210/215/220 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-012/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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