Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05E17) produced a major flare during the period. This impulsive M6/1b event peaked at 28/1635 UTC, and was associated with a Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 674 km/s, a Type IV radio sweep, and a 450 pfu tenflare. This event also produced a partial halo CME based on SOHO/LASCO imagery. Other notable flares from this region were an M2/1f flare at 27/2121 UTC and a C7 x-ray flare (optically correlated using SXI imagery) at 28/1543 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 889 km/s. Region 9715 continues to show significant growth as evidenced by a delta configuration magnetic classification that has become evident during the period. Four new regions were numbered today, Regions 9718 (S07E70), 9719 (N03E03), 9720 (S18E72), and 9721 (N10E78).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 22/2320 UTC, ended at 28/2100 UTC (max pfu of 18,900 occurred at 24/0555 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from the M6/1b (mentioned in 1A above) is expected to pass late on day three with brief minor storming periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%25%
Proton15%20%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Nov 199
  Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  205/210/220
  90 Day Mean        28 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  004/005-006/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov to 01 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%35%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%40%
Minor storm01%01%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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