Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. There were numerous
C-class flares observed during the period. The vast majority of
these flares appeared to originate from source regions beyond the
east limb (based on SXI imagery). Region 9715 (N05E30) produced
a single optically correlated C6/Sf flare at 27/1552 UTC.
This region has continued to show growth in magnetic complexity and
areal coverage. Region 9715 remains the most noteworthy region on the
visible disk. New Region 9717 (N06E78) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly low to moderate levels. Region 9715 has the potential
to produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event (began 22/2320 UTC, max 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC)
remains in progress although flux values have been oscillating
across event threshold levels throughout the past ten hours of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible during the forecast period due to a southern
hemisphere coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 99% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Nov 190 Predicted 28 Nov-30 Nov 195/205/210 90 Day Mean 27 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov 004/005-008/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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