Viewing archive of Monday, 26 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9715 (N06E44) was the lone source for optically correlated flare activity occurring from a numbered region during the period. Several C-class flares were noted from this region with the largest being a C4/Sf flare seen at 26/1354 UTC. Significant growth in magnetic complexity (beta-gamma) and penumbral areal coverage have made this region the most notable region currently on the visible disk. Region 9704 (S20W88) was quiet today as it transits the west limb. A C9 x-ray flare occurred on the east limb with an associated Type II radio sweep (251 km/s) at 25/2317 UTC. At S20, the source of this flare is believed to be old Region 9787 which produced M-class activity during it's last rotation. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9715 now appears capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2320 UTC, remained in progress (flux at 14 pfu) at the time of bulletin issue (peak flux was 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC). The polar cap absorption event ended at 26/0730 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for day one of the forecast. Active periods are possible on days two and three due to a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on the 27th, as the proton integral flux continues to slowly decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M40%40%50%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton90%50%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 175
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  175/180/185
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  010/010-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%

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