Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9704 (S18W74) produced an impulsive X1 flare at 25/0951 UTC (optically correlated using SXI imagery). SOHO/LASCO imagery did not reveal a CME signature with this major flare, negating geoeffective potential. Even with the loss of the delta magnetic classification, this region remains the principle source of flare activity and produced numerous C-class flares during the period. Region 9715 (N06E58) has shown some growth in complexity over the period and produced several minor optical flares. New Region 9716 (S04E73) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9704 remains capable of producing an isolated major flare before it transits the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active (24/2100-25/0000 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton event and associated polar cap absorption remained in progress at the end of the period (proton flux peaked to 18900 pfu at 24/0555 UTC). A moderate (10.2 percent based on the Thule neutron monitor) Forbush decrease began shortly after the beginning of forecast period and peaked near 25/0040 UTC, ended near 25/0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through days one and two, becoming quiet to active on day three with the recurrence of a geoeffective coronal hole. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on the 26th, as it continues to slowly decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton95%50%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 170
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  170/170/175
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  076/108
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  008/008-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%30%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%10%

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