Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9704 (S18W10) continued to produce C-class subflares. This region maintains most of its sunspot area and magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W45) is decaying and has not produced significant activity. New Region 9711 (S16W23) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 remains the most likely candidate for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. The CME that elevated activity levels yesterday has passed. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit has ended (start 19/1230, peak 34 pfu at 20/0010, and end 20/1420 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 185
  Predicted    21 Nov-23 Nov  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  010/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  012/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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