Viewing archive of Monday, 19 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E02) produced a number of C-class subflares, the largest being a C4/Sf at 19/0701 UTC. This Region remains the most magnetically complex presently on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 remains capable of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 19/1735 UTC, followed by a sudden impulse at ground magnetometers (10 nT at Boulder) at about 19/1815 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with a CME which occurred on 17 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu event threshold at 19/1230 UTC. This event remains in progress with a maximum flux so far of 20 pfu at 19/2055 UTC. This event is believed to also be associated with the M2/1n/CME event on 17 November.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three day forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton95%50%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Nov 191
  Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        19 Nov 218
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Nov  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  015/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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