Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E16) continued
to produce C-class subflares, the largest being a C7/Sn at 18/0919
UTC. This region has changed little since yesterday, maintaining
moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W19) also produced
subflares but none were associated with significant x-ray output.
New Region 9710 (S10E46) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 20
November. This increased activity is anticipated in response to a
CME associated with the M2/1n flare which occurred on 17 November.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 188 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 010/010-015/015-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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