Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E16) continued to produce C-class subflares, the largest being a C7/Sn at 18/0919 UTC. This region has changed little since yesterday, maintaining moderate magnetic complexity. Region 9697 (N12W19) also produced subflares but none were associated with significant x-ray output. New Region 9710 (S10E46) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely candidate for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled becoming unsettled to active by 20 November. This increased activity is anticipated in response to a CME associated with the M2/1n flare which occurred on 17 November.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 188
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  010/010-015/015-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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