Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9704 (S18E28)
produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 17/0525 UTC. This flare was
accompanied by Type II/IV radio sweep events. Region 9697 (N13W06)
also flared today, the largest being a C3/1f at 16/2146 UTC. Region
9690 (S18W80) is exiting the visible disk without incident.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single period of active
conditions occurred at many locations from 17/1200-1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 199 Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 17 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 008/010-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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