Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9704 (S18E28) produced a long-duration M2/1n flare at 17/0525 UTC. This flare was accompanied by Type II/IV radio sweep events. Region 9697 (N13W06) also flared today, the largest being a C3/1f at 16/2146 UTC. Region 9690 (S18W80) is exiting the visible disk without incident.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9704 is the most likely source of M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A single period of active conditions occurred at many locations from 17/1200-1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Nov 199
  Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  195/190/185
  90 Day Mean        17 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  004/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  008/010-008/010-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov to 20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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