Viewing archive of Friday, 16 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only isolated minor C-class activity was observed, the largest being a C2 flare at 16/0926Z from the NE limb. A considerable amount of surging was observed on the east limb near NO8. Region 9690 (S17W75) continues its decay phase as it approaches the west limb. Region 9704 (S18E41) continues to show some slow growth and now exceeds 400 millionths of white light area. New Regions 9707 (N14W24), 9708 (N01E05), and 9709 (N20E39), were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for an isolated M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb. C-class activity is possible from Regions 9697 (N13E07), and 9704.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
Class M45%40%40%
Class X15%10%10%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Nov 202
  Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov  195/190/185
  90 Day Mean        16 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Nov  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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