Viewing archive of Friday, 16 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only isolated minor C-class
activity was observed, the largest being a C2 flare at 16/0926Z from
the NE limb. A considerable amount of surging was observed on the
east limb near NO8. Region 9690 (S17W75) continues its decay phase
as it approaches the west limb. Region 9704 (S18E41) continues to
show some slow growth and now exceeds 400 millionths of white light
area. New Regions 9707 (N14W24), 9708 (N01E05), and 9709 (N20E39),
were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9690 still maintains potential for an isolated
M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb. C-class activity
is possible from Regions 9697 (N13E07), and 9704.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 202 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 217
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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