Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9690 (S18W34)
produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 13/0626Z and a long duration
C7/Sf flare at 13/1925Z. This region remains the largest and most
active region on the visible disk with white light area coverage
exceeding 1000 millionths. Some decay was observed over the past
24-36 hours with the delta configuration no longer obvious, but the
region still retains significant magnetic complexity and size. New
regions 9700 (S25W08) and 9701 (S33W03) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9690 will likely continue to produce C-class and
M-class flares and still has potential to produce an isolated major
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 232 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 215
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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