Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate, due to a single M-class event during the period. Region 9690 (S18W09) produced an M1/Sf flare at 11/1103 UTC. Region 9690 remains a relatively large sunspot group with a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region remained active through out the period, producing numerous C-class flares and nearly continuous optical flaring. Spotless Region 9686 (N15W78) produced a C5/Sf flare at 11/0035 UTC. Region 9697 (N11E76) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly moderate levels with the chance of an isolated major flare from Region 9690.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was a mostly quiet levels with isolated unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to be at quiet to unsettled conditions. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 234
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  235/235/230
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 213
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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