Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 November 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region
9690 (S18E04) remained the most impressive and active sunspot group
on the disk. It produced occasional flares including two low-level
M-class associated with minor radio emission. This region remained
large and magnetically complex, but showed some signs of decay in
the leader portion of the group. However, a magnetic delta
configuration persisted within its trailer spots. Region 9692
(N06W51) showed an increase in area and magnetic complexity, but
produced no flares. New Regions 9695 (N11E68) and 9696 (S05E68) were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9690 is expected to produce M-class
flares. It is also capable of producing a major flare. Region 9692
may produce an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 10
MeV proton event that began at 04/1705 UTC ended at 10/0715 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC, making it the
largest greater than 10 MeV proton event of the current sunspot
cycle.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. There will be a slight
chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 246 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 245/250/255 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 212
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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