Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Activity remained at high levels. Region 9687 (S19W18) produced an impulsive M9/1n flare at 08/0704 UTC associated with a 460 SFU Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep (est. velocity 818 km/sec). It also produced an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 08/1904 UTC, possibly associated with Type II (est. velocity 928 km/sec) and Type IV radio sweeps. This region showed no significant changes prior to or following the major flare, but it remained moderate in size and magnetic complexity, mainly due to the presence of a small delta magnetic configuration within its interior spots. Region 9690 (S13E31) remained the most impressive sunspot group on the disk with an area exceeding 1000 millions of the visible disk. It produced occasional flares including three M-class, the largest of which was an M4/2f at 08/1535 UTC. This region continued to increase in spot count, area, and magnetic complexity with strong magnetic gradients and a magnetic delta configuration within its leader spots. Region 9684 (N06W82), which was responsible for the X1/3b flare on 04 November, began a relatively quiet west limb passage. The remaining regions were unimpressive in most respects. No new regions were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. M-class flares are expected. Regions 9690 and 9687 have the potential for major flare production.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit continued. The greater than 10 MeV flux was 35 PFU and gradually decreasing at the close of the period. This event began at 04/1705 UTC and reached a maximum of 31,700 PFU at 06/0215 UTC. The polar cap absorption event that began on 04 November ended today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first day increasing to quiet to active levels on the last two days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 09 November. There will be a slight chance for another proton flare during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M90%90%90%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton75%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 248
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  245/250/250
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 210
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/010-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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