Viewing archive of Monday, 5 November 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Four M-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an M2/1n flare from Region 9684 (N07W40) at 05/0915 UTC. This region remains the most active region on the visible disk and retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9687 (S20E20) continues to become more complex, as several of its penless spots have acquired penumbra during the period. It also produced an M1/Sf flare at 05/0250 UTC. New Region 9690 (S18E71) is rotating onto the disk and is already showing high flare potential, having produced a C8.9/Sf event at 05/1808 UTC. It is currently being reported as a 6 spot group with an area of approximately 600 millionths. It will continue to grow in size and spot number as the entire region rotates into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate to high. Region 9684 remains capable of producing another major flare. Regions 9687 and 9690 are also capable of producing M-class events and have a slight chance of producing isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that started on 04 November continued through out the period and flux levels continued to climb, closing out the day at 102 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton event also continued to escalate flux levels, closing the period at 17,000 pfu. Both proton events originated from the X1/3b flare from Region 9684, that occurred on 04/1620 UTC. Subsequent flares may have contributed to the continued proton flux increase. A polar cap absorption event remains in progress.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be active to major storm levels on the first day of the forecast period. A coronal mass ejection (CME) from the X1 event on 04 November is expected to impact the geomagnetic field early on 06 November. Major storming is expected with isolated severe storming possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are expected to decrease to unsettled to minor storming on the second day and quiet to active on the third. However additional CME's may have been produced by several long duration flares that occurred after the X1 event. It is nearly impossible to detect these events as the LASCO imagery has been degraded by the current proton storm. If there are subsequent CME's, the geomagnetic storming could continue into the second and third day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Nov 235
  Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov  235/235/235
  90 Day Mean        05 Nov 207
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Nov  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  060/075-030/030-015/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm40%25%15%
Major-severe storm30%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%35%15%
Major-severe storm50%35%15%

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