Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 November 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Nov 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to numerous C-class flares. Regions 9687 (S19E49) and 9682 (N12W50) combined to produce a C5 event at 0741 UTC. An additional C5/Sf was produced by 9682 at 0935 UTC. Region 9682 was quieter today than yesterday and appears to have decreased slightly in area. Region 9687 also was quieter today. Preliminary analysis of 9687 indicates at least a beta-gamma magnetic class, and there may possibly be a weak delta sunspot in the group. Region 9684 (N05W15) showed some spot rotation and some development of the leader spot. A partial halo CME, reported by LASCO, entered the C2 field of view at 01/2230 UTC and was apparently associated with yesterday's M1 event out of Region 9682.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. There is a slight chance for a major flare or a proton producing flare. Regions 9682, 9684, and 9687 continue to be the major groups to watch for energetic flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24-36 hours. An increase to unsettled to slightly active levels is forecast for the second and third days in response to the partial halo CME event that occurred late on 1 November.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Nov 216
  Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  215/210/215
  90 Day Mean        03 Nov 206
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  005/008-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov to 06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%40%40%
Minor storm10%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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