Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9682 (N12E04)
has continued to produce high C-class and low M-class events during
the period. The largest was an M3/1n at 30/0836 UTC. The region
continues to grow in area, sunspot count, and magnetic complexity.
A long duration C9 event occurred at 30/2032 UTC. SXI images
indicate the possible source being a CME from behind the southeast
limb of the sun.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A major flare is possible from Region 9682.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Oct 226 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 205/200/195 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 202
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 018/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-010/015-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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