Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 9672 (S18W53)
and Region 9678 (N07W07) produced 6 C-class flares. Region 9682
(N12E45) produced the largest flare, a C7/Sf at 27/1529 UTC. Region
9672 remains complex with only a minor reduction is area coverage to
450 millionths. Region 9678 has ceased its rapid growth but remains
complex and has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 9682
has shown significant growth and increased in magnetic complexity to
a beta-gamma-delta configuration. New Region 9684 (N05E78) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9672, 9678, and 9682 all have the
potential for a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. The CME shock from
the X1/2b flare on 25/1502 UTC is expected early on the first day of
the period. Unsettled to minor storm levels are expected on the
first day of the period with possible major storm levels at the
higher latitudes. Quiet to Active levels are expected on day two
and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 247 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 250/245/245 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 199
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 035/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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