Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region
has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in
arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and
maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region
has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major
flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level
condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing
a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the
two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to
have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was
observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the
time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were
elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of
the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by
ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival
is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period.
Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected
to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period
barring a major flare event.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 239 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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