Viewing archive of Wednesday, 24 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period. Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period barring a major flare event.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M80%75%75%
Class X35%25%25%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 239
  Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  225/220/215
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%05%05%

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