Viewing archive of Friday, 19 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9661
(N16W35) was very active producing two X class flares. The first
flare was a X1/2b at 19/0105 UTC with an associated Type II radio
sweep (914 km/s). The second flare was a X1/2b at 19/1630 UTC with
an associated Type II radio sweep (738 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery
shows full halo CMEs associated with both events. A Type IV radio
sweep was also detected with both CME events. Other activity was
centered around Region 9658 (S14W61). This region produced an M5/1b
flare at 19/0943 UTC and several other minor M-class and C-class
flares. New Region 9674 (S08E34) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9658 and Region 9661 are very
active producing major flares. There has been very little change in
their characteristics from yesterday, so the potential for a major
flare remains good.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 10 MeV
proton levels was enhanced due to the two CMEs from Region 9661, but
remained just below event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one. Quiet
to minor storm levels are expected on day two and three with the
possibility for isolated major storm conditions. Analysis of the
full halo CME (19/0105 UTC from Region 9661) indicated shock arrival
late on day two or early on day three (57-72 hour transit time).
The shock arrival from the second full halo CME (19/1630 UTC from
Region 9661) is expected to arrive late on day three of the period
(76-81 hour transit time). Greater than 10 MeV proton levels may
exceed event threshold on the first day of the period. Further
enhancements may occur if major flare activity continues.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 75% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 248 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 250/250/245 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-025/025-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 55% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 55% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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