Viewing archive of Friday, 19 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9661 (N16W35) was very active producing two X class flares. The first flare was a X1/2b at 19/0105 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (914 km/s). The second flare was a X1/2b at 19/1630 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep (738 km/s). SOHO/LASCO imagery shows full halo CMEs associated with both events. A Type IV radio sweep was also detected with both CME events. Other activity was centered around Region 9658 (S14W61). This region produced an M5/1b flare at 19/0943 UTC and several other minor M-class and C-class flares. New Region 9674 (S08E34) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9658 and Region 9661 are very active producing major flares. There has been very little change in their characteristics from yesterday, so the potential for a major flare remains good.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 10 MeV proton levels was enhanced due to the two CMEs from Region 9661, but remained just below event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for day one. Quiet to minor storm levels are expected on day two and three with the possibility for isolated major storm conditions. Analysis of the full halo CME (19/0105 UTC from Region 9661) indicated shock arrival late on day two or early on day three (57-72 hour transit time). The shock arrival from the second full halo CME (19/1630 UTC from Region 9661) is expected to arrive late on day three of the period (76-81 hour transit time). Greater than 10 MeV proton levels may exceed event threshold on the first day of the period. Further enhancements may occur if major flare activity continues.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 248
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  250/250/245
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  010/012-025/025-030/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%30%30%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%30%35%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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