Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9658 (S15W35)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 17/1116 UTC and also increased in area
and magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma. Region 9661 (N16W08)
produced two minor C-class flares. This region remains the largest
on the disc and maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
Region 9669 (N13E42) has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma configuration. New Region 9671 (N15E32) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with the potential for an isolated high
condition. Region 9661 is rotating into geoeffective position and
has the potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days, barring
the occurrence of an earth-directed CME.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 217 Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 220/220/225 90 Day Mean 17 Oct 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 008/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct to 20 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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