Viewing archive of Monday, 15 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low. X-ray background levels continue at the C-class threshold with several superposed C-class flares, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E17). This sunspot group remains the largest and most active group on the disk. It is a moderately large E-type group which has steadily, but slowly, grown in area and magnetic complexity since its arrival on the disk. New Regions 9668 (N29E01) and 9669 (N13E70) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 appears capable of an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A single active period (15/0300-0600 UTC) occurred at many locations.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 193
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct  195/200/200
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  006/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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