Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few, small C-class flares were observed, mostly in Region 9661 (N15E30). This remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and has maintained its beta-delta magnetic configuration. New Regions 9666 (S12E31) and 9667 (N24E73) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 appears to be capable of an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 192
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  200/205/205
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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