Viewing archive of Friday, 12 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares occurred from a variety of active regions. The largest was a C7/SF at 12/0327 UTC in Region 9661 (N14E55). This region remains the largest sunspot group presently on the disk with a beta-delta, E-type configuration and sunspot area of about 800 millionths. The remaining sunspot groups are relatively small and simple. New Region 9664 (N07E16) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9661 is the most likely candidate for an M-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels in the wake of a passing CME. The most active periods occurred early in the UTC day of the 12th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming quiet to unsettled by the end of the three-day forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton02%02%02%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 179
  Predicted    13 Oct-15 Oct  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  013/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  028/030
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  015/020-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm 10%10%05%
Major-severe storm 05%01%01%

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