Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Region 9658 (S13E54) was the
most active region producing three minor C-class flares. Region
9653 (S21W02) and Region 9657 (N23E44) also produced minor C-class
events or sub faint flares. New Region 9659 (N04E19), Region 9660
(N12E20), and Region 9661 (N12E76) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9653 and 9658 have the potential to produce
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. High speed coronal hole
flow diminished throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storms levels.
The CME from 09/1113 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one or
early on day two. A coronal hole will also rotate into geoeffective
position by day three and may keep activity enhanced.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 179 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 015/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
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