Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar Activity was low. Region 9658 (S13E54) was the most active region producing three minor C-class flares. Region 9653 (S21W02) and Region 9657 (N23E44) also produced minor C-class events or sub faint flares. New Region 9659 (N04E19), Region 9660 (N12E20), and Region 9661 (N12E76) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9653 and 9658 have the potential to produce M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled. High speed coronal hole flow diminished throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storms levels. The CME from 09/1113 UTC is expected to arrive late on day one or early on day two. A coronal hole will also rotate into geoeffective position by day three and may keep activity enhanced.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 179
  Predicted    11 Oct-13 Oct  175/170/170
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  015/015-025/025-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%50%45%
Minor storm 20%30%30%
Major-severe storm 10%15%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%45%45%
Minor storm 25%35%35%
Major-severe storm 15%20%20%

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