Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9653
(S22E11) produced an M1/2f flare at 09/1113 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 504
km/s. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare. Earlier in
the period, Region 9657 (N23E58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 09/0741
UTC, which also had an associated Type II sweep with an estimated
shock velocity of 585 km/s. The rest of the day's activity
consisted of minor C-class and optical sub-flares. New Region 9658
(S14E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains capable of producing
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. High speed
stream effects are believed to be responsible for the elevated field
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one due to high
speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor storm conditions are
possible late on day two through day three due to CME effects
associated with the M1/2f at 09/1113 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 176 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 011/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 012/015-015/015-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
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