Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9653 (S22E11) produced an M1/2f flare at 09/1113 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of 504 km/s. A Type IV radio sweep also accompanied this flare. Earlier in the period, Region 9657 (N23E58) produced a C7/Sf flare at 09/0741 UTC, which also had an associated Type II sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 585 km/s. The rest of the day's activity consisted of minor C-class and optical sub-flares. New Region 9658 (S14E68) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9653 remains capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. High speed stream effects are believed to be responsible for the elevated field levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through day one due to high speed coronal hole effects. Active to minor storm conditions are possible late on day two through day three due to CME effects associated with the M1/2f at 09/1113 UTC.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 176
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/015-015/015-025/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%50%
Minor storm10%20%30%
Major-severe storm01%15%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%45%
Minor storm15%25%35%
Major-severe storm01%15%20%

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