Viewing archive of Monday, 8 October 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Only a couple of minor C-class flares occurred during the period. The most significant event of the day was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 08/0819 UTC. A Type II radio sweep with a shock speed of 581 km/s accompanied this flare. New Region 9657 (N23E70) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods between 08/1200 and 1800 UTC. High speed stream effects are believed to be responsible for the slightly elevated field levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods due to high speed stream effects for the first day of the period. The long duration C2/Sf flare and filament eruption on 06/1713 UTC likely had an associated coronal mass ejection that may create active periods on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 171
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct  165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  001/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%40%
Minor storm20%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%50%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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