Viewing archive of Friday, 5 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. Multiple minor C-class flares
occurred from several regions. Regions: 9641 (S13W34), 9650
(S14E44), and 9636 (N13W82) all produced small C-class flares. Type
III radio sweeps and several discrete radio bursts made up the rest
of the day's activity. New Region 9654 (N07E06) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
M-class activity is possible from Regions 9641, 9645, and 9653.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at mid-latitudes. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, at
geosynchronous orbit, event ended at 05/0330 UTC. The proton event
peaked at 02/0810 UTC, 2360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Oct 177 Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 175/170/170 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 009/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 008/008-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct to 08 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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