Viewing archive of Monday, 1 October 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9
flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628
(S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as
well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio
emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an
excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the
X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible
disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643
(S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were
at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable.
The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as
it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close
of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and
increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next
two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are
expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 217 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 210/205/205 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 035/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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