Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 September 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Although the x-ray background was elevated all day, and significant white light growth occurred in a few regions, the largest flare activity was just a C8/Sf at 0645 UTC from Region 9632 (S18E45). Numerous mid-sized C-class events occurred from a number of the 13 spotted regions visible. Region 9622 (N12W32) grew dramatically in white light, but is still dwarfed by Regions 9628 (S17E25) and 9632, measuring 630 and 710 millionths respectively. Two new regions came into view, 9633 (N23E75) and 9634 (N12E76).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9622, 9628, and 9632 are each capable of M-class x-ray flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A brief interval of active conditions occurred 0900-1500 UTC as the IMF Bz vector turned southward.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Sep 255
  Predicted    23 Sep-25 Sep  260/265/270
  90 Day Mean        22 Sep 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Sep  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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